I have in the past written about predictions that were horribly wrong. (1) Today I wish to return to the subject of prognostication, because so many examples of silliness have come across my radar recently.
But first—a tip of the hat to A. J. Liebling of The New Yorker, who, in 1949, foresaw the shrinkage of New York City’s dailies because of consolidation: “If the trend continues, New York will be a one- or two-paper town by about 1975.” He may have been off by a few years and a paper or two, but was keenly aware of what the trend was.
On the other hand, here’s our latest walk of shame (from the 1940s to today):
John T. Flynn, a commentator on the political scene, in 1939 “predicted that Social Security would be under water by 1970, and insolvent by 1980.” (2)
Cosmopolitan’s Horoscope:
In 1948, Queen Elizabeth gave birth to the son who would be heir to the throne. He was christened Charles Philip Arthur George. Time magazine opined that “the baby would probably ascend the throne as George VII.”
Like John T. Flynn (above), James Burnham moved across the political spectrum from left to right. In its April 26, 1947 issue, The New Yorker gives us a breakdown of some of Burnham’s predictions:
Mr. Burnham was equally generous with ominous predictions in two earlier books. In 'The Managerial Revolution. published in 1941, he predicted, with a few small "if"s, that Germany would win the war (p. 247), consolidate the European Continent and smash the British Empire (p. 177); that the world would coalesce into three super-states-Japan, Germany, and the United States (p. 178)—with half of Russia going to Germany and half to Japan (p. 225); that the governments-in-exile would never be restored (p. 173) and Europe would never again be broken into a score of sovereign states, since any attempt to do so would collapse within twenty months (p. 246); that capitalist states could not fight a modern war adequately (p. 267); that American youth would never fight willingly, since it had nothing to fight for (p. 190); and so forth.
"The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom,” published in 1943, Mr. Burnham's alarm was unabated. He predicted that a terrific economic crisis would occur soon after the end of the war and that public debt would be repudiated all over the world (p. 259); that the war would not end with a victorious coalition writing a peace (p. 234) ; that Japan would not be crushed for many years, perhaps never (p. 260); that our Army would never again shrink from its wartime size and influence (p. 233); and that the Roosevelt administration, to get reelected in 1944, would have to suspend political liberties (p. 260).
Is it any wonder that he became a leading light of William Buckley’s National Review?
Here’s a prediction that is less than a month old: “Jack Ciattarelli will win N.J.’s red-hot governor’s race on Tuesday.” That’s Tom Martello at https://www.nj.com/politics/2025/11/jack-ciattarelli-will-win-njs-red-hot-governors-race-on-tuesday.html
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💡Researchers at Tsinghua University (Chun Liu and Shunzhi Pang) studied LinkedIn posts of 727 financial analysts and their forecasting performance over 2021–2023, covering forecasts for 3,336 U.S. firms.
💡They discovered that analysts who used highly positive, expressive, self-promotional language tended to make less accurate predictions.
💡Paradoxically, those same analysts who performed worse were more likely to receive career promotions, especially if they had fewer followers, less experience, or were male. (3)
Back in the 40s, The New Yorker informed its readers that someone queried “the reference library of the House of Commons and received the following pronouncement: ‘In Great Britain any adult twenty-one years of age or over may register and vote except peers and lunatics.’”
The line between prognosticators and lunatics is a thin one. Best to keep both out of the voting booth.
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(1) https://drnormalvision.blogspot.com/2012/02/you-were-saying-milord.html
https://drnormalvision.blogspot.com/2023/03/crystal-ball-for-sale.html
(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Flynn#cite_note-5
